Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.356197 6.384509 7.522853 8.871683 10.421249 12.140540 14.187123
2025-02-23 3.511531 4.797065 6.384795 8.467711 11.103442 14.301101 18.444080
2025-03-02 2.395993 3.705136 5.487575 8.040197 11.541427 16.107633 22.432497
2025-03-09 1.787029 3.086300 5.012655 7.984640 12.341930 18.365964 27.162358
2025-03-16 1.345569 2.579120 4.558230 7.823945 12.901693 20.284802 31.560072
2025-03-23 1.141306 2.390673 4.532181 8.266000 14.352241 23.561202 38.124442
2025-03-30 0.931219 2.132297 4.329989 8.371755 15.262727 26.086077 43.765056
2025-04-06 0.757207 1.892660 4.105993 8.388270 16.002538 28.381034 49.205583
2025-04-13 0.616348 1.679931 3.884793 8.362393 16.644774 30.546988 54.577719
2025-04-20 0.567169 1.654889 4.020092 9.004316 18.502431 34.830018 63.624552
2025-04-27 0.492368 1.548538 3.967455 9.270915 19.700985 38.084655 71.188757
2025-05-04 0.435391 1.470359 3.958723 9.617697 21.071629 41.721519 79.609425
2025-05-11 0.359055 1.320966 3.770795 9.585340 21.751323 44.259305 86.443659
2025-05-18 0.281905 1.142153 3.477358 9.283850 21.874120 45.816300 91.706381
2025-05-25 0.215554 0.968975 3.156857 8.866406 21.707009 46.814870 96.036018
2025-06-01 0.176758 0.871052 3.008731 8.822142 22.304750 49.287356 103.179457
2025-06-08 0.141281 0.768475 2.822515 8.652870 22.608222 51.203994 109.403379
2025-06-15 0.129682 0.755367 2.892595 9.136488 24.399134 56.165512 121.622790
2025-06-22 0.110551 0.701187 2.825570 9.252423 25.363647 59.525795 130.960551
2025-06-29 0.092432 0.641924 2.728015 9.270686 26.100727 62.467109 139.645878
2025-07-06 0.076523 0.584054 2.620203 9.242607 26.721866 65.204019 148.073678
2025-07-13 0.074151 0.597097 2.760875 9.941359 29.163323 71.916437 164.716832
2025-07-20 0.065870 0.572432 2.761321 10.231374 30.623071 76.619569 177.552401